Nov 4, 2011 0
Groupon’s much anticipated IPO values Groupon at $13 billion, short of the $20 billion
One of the most anticipated IPO in the tech world was decided today, as Groupon Inc raised $700 million after increasing the size of its initial public offering and becoming the largest IPO by an Internet company since Google Inc raised $1.7 billion in 2004. This came after a widely publicized offer by Yahoo for $2 billion which was turned down, followed by Google unsuccessful bid for $6 billion. With the $700 million IPO, Groupon is valued at $13 billion after saying it increased the offering by 5 million shares to 35 million in total and pricing them at $20 each.
Analysts were anticipating that Groupon is valued at $15 to $20 billion, but I greatly question that value, but fell short. Don’t get me wrong, I have friends working there, and have bought from Groupon but I don’t see that model sustaining that $13-15 billion valuation.
Here are my observations:-
- Finite merchants and value.
I have mentioned before and I will mention again, merchants/stores often don’t benefit from getting on Groupon other than the flash-in-the-pan sales from Groupon. In some cases, it is a disservice to the brand itself. The example I like to bring up is Gap selling on Groupon. Yes, it brought PR to the Gap at a huge cost of negative association as a brand discounter. Gap does not spend millions to have the Material Girl, Madonna promote the billion dollar brand and then be associated with a discounter like Groupon. Thus, there were complaints by companies that appeared on Groupon that the customers that walk through are there for the discounts and never return. There are also a finite number of companies that Groupon is able to approach.Despite Groupon’s eight-percent growth in the last quarter, its local deals revenue fell by three percent. Taking into account the growth in subscribership… It may not be a good sign that its core local deals business is already losing market share. - Sustainable growth with competition
Groupon’s business model is no rocket science and the barrier to entry is pretty much non-existence. The two big dogs on the block, Amazon and Google are also in this space. One day before Groupon’s IPO, Google Deals launched with a nationwide REI deal. Groupon’s closest competitor, LivingSocial is owned by Amazon.
As of September 30, Groupon had 143 million subscribers, but in the third quarter only 30 million of them bought Groupons. Repeat customers increased from the second quarter but only numbered 16 million, according to a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Failing to win enough repeat customers along with stiff competition may dampen the rapid growth.Days before the IPO, Groupon cut 10% of its sales force plus half of the copywriters in China.
It would be great to see Groupon fly high, but I just don’t see the machine fueling its growth with this business model.
It was 





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